MIC (Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute) held its 36th MIC Forum Fall from October 30 to November 2. On October 30, the forum focused on the telecommunications industry, providing insights into the global smartphone market size, along with the latest developments in 5G networks and a preview of the forthcoming 6G era.

Estimations for the global smartphone shipment volume in 2023 stand at 1.12 billion units. Looking ahead to 2024, cautiously assessing market demand, brands anticipate a modest 3% year-on-year growth, with an estimated global shipment of approximately 1.15 billion units.

According to MIC's analysis, the penetration rate of 5G smartphones is poised to escalate from 59% in 2023 to an impressive 68% by 2024. This surge is directly influenced by market conditions in 2023. In light of these projections, global 5G smartphone shipments are expected to reach an estimated 660 million units this year, illustrating a substantial year-on-year growth rate of 4.5%. Anticipating further advancements, it is estimated that global shipments of 5G smartphones will experience a significant surge, reaching an impressive 780 million units in 2024. This represents an outstanding year-on-year growth rate of 18.7%. Moreover, the forecasted CAGR (Compound Average Growth Rate) for the period from 2023 to 2027 stands at an impressive 9.4%.

Senior Industry Analyst Rachel Liao provided four insightful observations. Firstly, it is anticipated that by 2026, Taiwan's smartphone manufacturing in India will contribute to approximately 21% of total production. Chinese brands have been pivotal in fostering the establishment of a robust supply chain hub in India. Secondly, vigilant attention is warranted for the impact of the ongoing US-China trade dispute on the industry's restructuring, particularly concerning RISC-V technology. Thirdly, Rachel emphasized that "interactive calling" is poised to revolutionize next-generation 5G smartphones, constituting a crucial stride towards the transition to 6G. She further noted, "However, successful implementation hinges on three crucial factors: the completeness of 5G network infrastructure, the maturity of mobile chip and terminal technologies, and the feasibility of user adoption habits and business models." Lastly, a continued increase in periscope lens penetration rates across models is anticipated.

Global 5G Smartphone Shipment Volume, 2023-2027

Source: MIC, October 2023

Established in 1987, MIC is a division of III (Institute for Information Industry), a major government think tank, and one of the leading IT research institutes in the Asia Pacific region.

To know more about this topic, please visit: Worldwide Smartphone Forecast, 2023 - 2027 (May 2023 Update), Global and Taiwan 5G Smartphone Shipment Five-Year Forecast: 2023-2027 (pre-order), Taiwan 5G FWA CPE Industry, 2Q 2023

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